Europe in 2040: The Future Of Health
Europe needs a fresh perspective on healthcare.
As entrepreneurs, we're always envisioning the future and contemplating how we can create impactful solutions to address significant challenges in the next 10 to 20 years.
It's not hard to imagine that by 2040, healthcare will be structured around citizens rather than the institutions that currently dominate the systems. The need for a new, cost-effective, and sustainable approach to healthcare in Europe is driven by factors such as aging populations, shifts in culture, complex financing models, high costs of innovation, a shortage of skilled personnel, and growing health disparities.
A New Healthcare Vision
The Current Situation: Healthcare in Europe is managed independently by each nation, resulting in a diverse array of systems shaped by unique cultural, economic, and political factors. Funding for healthcare primarily comes from three sources: government schemes, social health insurance (SHI), and private health insurance (PHI). The allocation of health spending is largely influenced by political decisions and tends to align with each country's economic size, as measured by GDP. In 2020, the average healthcare expenditure in Europe accounted for 10.9% of GDP (it was 8.8% in 2019). However, access to new medicines and innovative technologies varies significantly across Europe due to differing pricing and reimbursement models.
Recognizing the urgent need to address healthcare challenges and disparities, especially exacerbated by the recent pandemic, the European Commission introduced a new EU Global Health Strategy in November 2022. This strategy emphasizes the importance of ensuring the health and well-being of European citizens and calls for transformative approaches to enhance healthcare capacity and capability.
The strategy highlights the importance of:
Transforming European healthcare systems significantly, with a strong emphasis on digitalization and developing a more sustainable healthcare workforce.
Encouraging the adoption of environmentally friendly healthcare systems.
Placing greater emphasis on primary care and prioritizing preventive measures to maintain people's health. This includes empowering individuals with a deeper understanding of their health and giving them more control over their well-being.
This transition shifts from the current focus on reactive treatment to a focus on proactive health promotion, prevention, and symptom management.
In 2017, Deloitte launched its Global Future of Health campaign, foreseeing a shift towards proactive health management enabled by emerging technologies like AI and digital platforms. Deloitte envisions a future of healthcare in Europe where prevention takes precedence over treatment, aiming for population-based, efficient, and cost-effective care by 2040. Treatments will follow the ‘5P’ approach, focusing on prediction, prevention, participation, personalization, and precision to enhance longevity and well-being.
How Could This Futuristic Vision Impact Different Stakeholders?
European healthcare is on the verge of a profound transformation as organizations transition from existing isolated systems to a collaborative network of interconnected partners.
In the future of health, stakeholders like MedTech, pharma and technology companies and big data organisations will assume new roles aligning with outcome-based care delivery.
The Impact:
1. Empowered citizen: Everyday people will have easy online access to their private health records and decide who can access their data and how it's used. With digital skills, they'll take charge of their health, using technology like Age-Tech and Fem-Tech, as well as the latest in geriatric science and precision and regenerative medicine to learn more about healthy aging.
Within Age-Tech there are already real players in the market:
- Cera (UK): total funding € 303 Million
- Birdie (UK): total funding €43 Million
- Ouihelp (France): total funding €33.4 Million
Other companies in the market are: Cuideo (Spain):€5 Million, Nobi (Belgium) €14 Million, Marta (Germany): €6.6 Million
My previous newsletters have featured some of the most promising Fem-Tech startups in Europe, focusing on areas like fertility and menopause.
2. Governments, along with private and public insurance organizations and other payers, will introduce Universal Health Coverage (UHC) for core services using new funding models based on outcomes. By 2040, equal access to healthcare and financial protection for all citizens will be widely accepted throughout Europe.
e.g. France is the first country to offer elective egg freezing for nonmedical reasons under public health coverage. However, this decision deserves in-depth scrutiny in the future because the cost-beneficial profile is yet unknown.
3. Healthcare providers will prioritize patients and use digital tools from start to finish to track progress. European citizens who need help will be guided to the right place for care automatically. Primary care networks will focus on the health needs of the community using a personalized approach. They will use AI for remote monitoring and diagnostics and gather real-world data on vital signs.
There are already great innovations in this area:
- Doccla (UK) Europe's leading virtual hospital.
- Tucuvi (Spain) automates medical phone conversations with AI.
- Nabla (France) provides doctors with an AI-powered tool that generates clinical notes from patient consultations. It raised €22 Million in Jan/2024.
- Ganymed Robotics (France) is developing robotic systems designed to assist surgeons in performing minimally invasive procedures.
4. A steady and sustainable healthcare workforce is crucial. Advances in AI robotics, cognitive automation, data exchange, and digitization will improve healthcare professionals' productivity and work-life balance.
European investors are already watching these companies closely:
- CogStack (UK) helps hospitals measure workforce productivity and automate data tasks (including clinical coding).
- Healthtech-1 (UK) automates admin tasks in primary care like patient registration and triage. The startup began automating patient registrations in primary care.
5. MedTech companies will lead Value-Based Healthcare (VBHC). AI-powered products and services will enhance understanding of their clinical use, offering cost-effective solutions. MedTech will employ advanced data analytics and collaborate closely with users to create new cognitive technologies for improved health results.
3 medical device startups to watch in Europe:
- Volta (France) is developing a software called to help treat atrial fibrillation, a condition that causes an abnormal heart rhythm.
- FundamentalVR (UK) provides a virtual reality (VR) platform for surgical training with the latest medical devices and complex procedures, with optic and haptic VR simulation.
- Robeauté (France) is building microrobots with a built-in motor which can carry therapeutic cargo or diagnostic sensors to get to the disease site in the brain.
6. Pharmaceutical companies will use AI throughout their operations to boost productivity and enable the delivery of 5P medicine. Streamlining research and development and production processes will be essential for pharmaceutical companies to achieve a positive return on investment (ROI) from innovation.
Some notable companies employing AI for drug discovery are:
- Cradle (Netherlands) uses generative AI to help biologists design improved proteins and accelerate research and development. In November 2023, Cradle raised €22 Million.
- Exscientia (UK), is an AI-driven precision medicine company committed to discovering, designing, and developing the best possible drugs in the fastest and most effective manner using its AI technology.
- Iktos (France) is making use of AI technology for drug discovery and design, using it to rapidly identify small molecules that can become clinical candidates.
Collaborative partnerships for Value-Based Healthcare (VBHC) among all stakeholders will drive progress in the future of health in many countries.
Europe's healthcare system is on the verge of a significant transformation that will impact everyone involved. If this vision becomes reality, it will lead to healthier populations and more sustainable healthcare.
P.S. I used some of the following sources to obtain the data for this article:
(1) Think Global Health (2) Eurostat (3) European Commission (4) Deloitte (5) Dealroom (6)Crunchbase
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